Victor Cruz is widely considered to be the most surprising fantasy story of 2011, but if given a chance, I’d vote for Marshawn Lynch. Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats might not agree on much, but they both considered Lynch to be one of the worst backs in the NFL in 2010 . . . and 2009 . . . and 2008.
In previewing the 2011 season, I pointed out how Skittles has made virtually every run of his life equivalent to a goal line carry against the Steel Curtain and used him as the poster child for my Pro Football Focus article examining Vision Yards.
And then Lynch went out and finished as the No. 6 back in fantasy.
This leads to three questions for 2012.
1) Is Lynch a triumph of scouting over stats?
2) With the emergence and current ubiquity of PPR leagues, has the fantasy community become so enamored of receptions that good old fashioned bell cow backs are systematically undervalued?
3) Will Lynch be a good value in 2012?
Since those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it . . . well, actually, history is going to repeat itself regardless, fundamental human condition and all. That being the case, perhaps we can get on the right side of history, bet with the winners.
To generate players comparable to Lynch, I looked for RBs between the ages of 23 and 27 who posted a season with at least 1000 yards rushing and double digit TDs, but less than 4.4 ypa and fewer than 40 receptions.
Marshawn Lynch Historical Comparisons Since 1990
| Rushing | Receiving | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Age | Draft | Tm | Att | Yds | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | ||
| Marshawn Lynch | 2011 | 25 | 1-12 | SEA | 285 | 1204 | 4.22 | 12 | 80.3 | 28 | 212 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 2011 | 23 | 1-31 | ARI | 245 | 1047 | 4.27 | 10 | 69.8 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2010 | 23 | 1-23 | PIT | 324 | 1273 | 3.93 | 13 | 79.6 | 23 | 167 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2006 | 27 | 4-100 | CIN | 341 | 1309 | 3.84 | 12 | 81.8 | 23 | 124 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2005 | 26 | 4-100 | CIN | 337 | 1458 | 4.33 | 12 | 91.1 | 23 | 90 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2005 | 24 | 2-51 | WAS | 352 | 1516 | 4.31 | 11 | 94.8 | 30 | 216 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2004 | 25 | 4-100 | CIN | 361 | 1454 | 4.03 | 12 | 90.9 | 15 | 84 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2004 | 23 | 1-23 | BUF | 284 | 1128 | 3.97 | 13 | 70.5 | 22 | 169 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2003 | 25 | 2-58 | BUF | 331 | 1356 | 4.10 | 10 | 90.4 | 28 | 158 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 2001 | 27 | 2-43 | CIN | 340 | 1315 | 3.87 | 10 | 82.2 | 34 | 228 | 3 |
| Stephen Davis | 2000 | 26 | 4-102 | WAS | 332 | 1318 | 3.97 | 11 | 87.9 | 33 | 313 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 1997 | 27 | 4-114 | CHI | 275 | 1033 | 3.76 | 10 | 79.5 | 28 | 115 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1995 | 27 | 9-241 | WAS | 338 | 1309 | 3.87 | 10 | 81.8 | 31 | 232 | 1 |
| Rodney Hampton | 1995 | 26 | 1-24 | NYG | 306 | 1182 | 3.86 | 10 | 73.9 | 24 | 142 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 1995 | 25 | 2-34 | TAM | 332 | 1207 | 3.64 | 11 | 75.4 | 14 | 110 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1995 | 27 | 4-89 | SEA | 310 | 1346 | 4.34 | 15 | 84.1 | 35 | 247 | 1 |
| Barry Foster | 1992 | 24 | 5-128 | PIT | 390 | 1690 | 4.33 | 11 | 105.6 | 36 | 344 | 0 |
Despite having had a far superior season, Lynch’s future prospects pale in comparison to those of CJ21K , even though Chris Johnson was this year’s most disappointing back. It doesn’t take much research to see the answers to our three questions are 1) Probably not 2) Definitely not 3) Only if Rashard Mendenhall carried you to a title in 2011.
But we’ll do that research anyway.
1) Almost all the players saw a subsequent decrease in their number of TDs. 17 of the 19 players saw their TDs fall the year after they appeared on this list and most fell significantly. Rudi Johnson and Terry Allen were the two exceptions.
2) Players who log a heavy workload but are not heavily involved in the passing game almost inevitably struggle with injuries. Rarely do they play well into their late 20s.
* Chris Wells fit the category this year but a string of nagging injuries mitigated his breakout.
* Rashard Mendenhall fell short of reprising his 2010 season when he blew out his knee down the stretch. Based on the patterns seen here, his career is now in doubt.
* A series of injuries kept Clinton Portis from reaching 1000 yards after age 27, and he was out of the NFL by 30.
* Rudi Johnson, who authored two successful followup seasons after first appearing on this list, was done at 28.
* Injuries quickly rendered Travis Henry fantasy irrelevant. His name would re-emerge occasionally due to the notoriety generated by his personal life.
* Stephen Davis, who hit 1600-plus yards from scrimmage twice more after appearing on this list, was done at 29.
*Raymont Harris, Rodney Hampton, and Barry Foster were all done by 27.
* Errict Rhett was injured the following year and managed only one more healthy season.
* The best longevity was probably seen by Corey Dillon, and Terry Allen, although only Dillon managed a 1000-yard, 10-plus TD season after turning 30.
* Willis McGahee actually qualified for this list after a rookie season that saw him return from a devastating knee injury. Although he has never again posted a 1000-yard, double digit TD season, at age 26 he went for 1438 scrimmage yards, 43 receptions, and 8 TDs.
Even in 2011 Lynch may have been more style than substance. He ranked 39th among RBs in Points Added Per Play. Based on the above analysis, he projects as no more than a 5th round fantasy pick for 2012. It’s always possible he sustains his performance as Rudi Johnson 2.0, but in all likelihood he’ll be one of the most overvalued players next year.
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