Before the NFL Draft I debuted the Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS) and Dominator Rating (DR) as a means of ranking rookies. This two part series looks at potential breakout players. Part One highlights the guys DR and HaSS are crazy about. This column takes the opposite approach, examining some wide receivers you should approach with caution.
In saying these players sport red flags, I mean they have significant risk in relationship to the lofty expectations. Some of these players make solid WR3/4 targets, but if you’re drafting them as your WR1/2 it’ll be a different story.
These are not players I’m rooting against. In many cases it’s the exact opposite. I’m as big a sucker for a good narrative as the next guy, and nothing thrills like a true underdog story. While it’s very rare, players with poor projections occasionally even emerge as superstars. The Panthers’ Steve Smith is the perfect example of a player with both a terrible Height-adjusted Speed Score and poor Dominator Rating coming out of college.
If you like these players, draft them. Your team should be made up of players you want to root for. I’m merely trying to shed some extra light on players about whom you might be emotionally agnostic.
1. Denarius Moore: HaSS – 100, DR – .32
Although the current hamstring injury has deflated the irrational exuberance surrounding Moore, his pre-camp expectations were definitely out of hand. Moore’s a good athlete and was a good college player. NFL GMs should be embarrassed for letting him fall to the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Conversely, it’s probably too early to consider him either an elite vertical threat or a strong candidate to emerge as a stud all around receiver. Many pundits are now comparing him to Mike Wallace, but Wallace ran a 4.28 at the Combine, giving him a 116 HaSS. In terms of running away from defensive backs, there’s a gigantic difference between a 4.28 and Moore’s 4.43. The Raiders’ receiving corps is deeper than it’s been in recent memory, and some believe they’ll operate a run-oriented offense under Greg Knapp. I was a Moore owner from Day 1 in 2011, so consider me a confused enthusiast/skeptic. Continue reading Caveat Emptor: DR and HaSS Find Red Flags