“3. There are three stages: Thoughtless being. Thought. Return to thoughtless being.
33. Do not confuse the first and third stages. Thoughtless being is achieved by everyone. The return to thoughtless being by a very few.”
– Chad Harbach via Aparicio Rodriguez in The Art of Fielding
The groundbreaking football book Game Plan by Frank DuPont discusses the way that Madden fanatics may have far more practice making quick game management decisions than NFL head coaches. It’s no surprise, he says, that NFL coaches really struggle with this aspect of the game. Because their many hours of coaching development are spent almost entirely on other aspects of football, it wouldn’t even make sense for coaches like Andy Reid to be good at making decisions in such a context.
Over the last four years, I’ve drafted and played out more than 200 fantasy football teams. It’s my theory that most fantasy experts are presenting misleading information and bad strategies, not from any moral or intellectual failing, but simply because they haven’t put in the practice. A person who plays 4 to 5 leagues a year is going to require 50 years to accumulate the same number of reps.
This is important because fantasy football is a game of strategy, and it isn’t enough to know about football or be able to do mathematical computations. Developing a strategy is about creating conjectures and then testing those conjectures. You read a lot about ‘expert mock drafts’ but participating in a mock draft is likely to make you worse at fantasy football. Even if you haven’t made it explicit, any time you participate in a mock draft, you’re employing a strategy. Essentially, you’ve a theory for your draft, but you receive no feedback because the feedback would come from actively playing out the league.
Competing in Serious Events
In the final week before the season, I participated in more than twenty high stakes drafts alone. At one point I drafted for six consecutive hours. On two separate occasions I was participating in three NFFC Main Event drafts simultaneously – one by teleconference and two by internet. On one of the two occasions, my teams weren’t even in the same format.
This year I’m in 32 leagues, most of which are high stakes. I’m also very excited about the first year of the PFF Dynasty format – my first foray into IDP. Through one week, the Banana Stand is 24-8 and posted the high score in PFF Dynasty by 33 points.
Tested Contrarian Viewpoints
A lot of the writing I do for both PFF and Money in the Banana Stand is contrarian in nature. Some of these pieces are fanciful or ironic, but most of the outlandish claims you see on the Banana Stand are true. The rankings and strategy suggestions are the result of thousands of hours of participating in drafts, making waiver claims, proposing trades. They’re the result of asking questions, making conjectures, and then testing those ideas within the cauldron of actual high stakes play.
I hope you disagree with many of things I write and many of my rankings and that you’ll let me know in the comments, in emails, and via twitter when I eventually get around to adding that. The only way to get better is to discover that some of your ideas are in error. (Which is why it’s always better to be the loser of an argument.) If nothing else, creative disagreement – even when it ultimately proves fruitless – improves the quality of future ideas.
The Official Money in the Banana Stand 2012 Draft Board
Below I’ve posted my final 2012 NFFC Draft Board, a PPR format which starts 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 Flex. Obviously it won’t aid your draft efforts this season, but you might find it interesting as you go about developing and testing your own ideas.
Last year, I received excellent feedback from readers on my ‘rest of the way rankings’ series. The only way to understand where I’m coming from in those pieces is to see where I started from. Even after one week, it’s clear some of the rankings are in error. (For example, the placement of Adrian Peterson will probably prove absurdly low.)
The highlighted players are those whose ADPs made them targets based on my rankings.
The Board |
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Tier One |
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RB | WR | TE | QB |
1. Ray Rice | 1. Calvin Johnson | ||
2. LeSean McCoy | 2. Julio Jones | ||
3. Arian Foster | |||
TIER TWO | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
4. Chris Johnson | 3. Larry Fitzgerald | 1. Jimmy Graham | 1. Aaron Rodgers |
5. Jamaal Charles | 2. Rob Gronkowski | 2. Tom Brady | |
6. Ryan Mathews | |||
7. Darren McFadden | |||
TIER THREE | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
8. Doug Martin | 4. Andre Johnson | 3. Drew Brees | |
5. Demaryius Thomas | 4. Matthew Stafford | ||
6. Victor Cruz | |||
7. Hakeem Nicks | |||
TIER FOUR | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
9. Stevan Ridley | 8. Percy Harvin | 3. Aaron Hernandez | |
9. A.J. Green | |||
10. Wes Welker | |||
11. Jordy Nelson | |||
12. Dez Bryant | |||
13. Brandon Marshall | |||
14. Eric Decker | |||
15. Marques Colston | |||
16. Greg Jennings | |||
17. Roddy White | |||
18. Steve Smith | |||
19. Miles Austin | |||
20. Kenny Britt | |||
TIER FIVE | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
10. Kevin Smith | 21. Dwayne Bowe | ||
11. DeMarco Murray | 22. Torrey Smith | ||
12. Fred Jackson | 23. Brandon Lloyd | ||
13. Darren Sproles | 24. Antonio Brown | ||
14. Matt Forte | 25. Jeremy Maclin | ||
26. Pierre Garcon | |||
TIER SIX | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
15. Marshawn Lynch | 27. Reggie Wayne | 4. Vernon Davis | 5. Cam Newton |
16. Trent Richardson | 28. Steve Johnson | 5. Jermichael Finley | 6. Matt Ryan |
17. Reggie Bush | 29. Mike Wallace | 7. Tony Romo | |
18. Maurice Jones-Drew | 30. Justin Blackmon | 8. RGIII | |
19. Jonathan Stewart | 31. Vincent Jackson | 9. Michael Vick | |
20. C.J. Spiller | |||
21. Steven Jackson | |||
22. Peyton Hillis | |||
TIER SEVEN | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
23. Ryan Williams | 32. Titus Young | 6. Antonio Gates | 10. Peyton Manning |
24. Adrian Peterson | 33. Michael Crabtree | 7. Fred Davis | 11. Eli Manning |
25. Ahmad Bradshaw | 34. Greg Little | 8. Kyle Rudolph | 12. Andrew Luck |
26. David Wilson | 35. Austin Collie | 13. Jake Locker | |
27. Donald Brown | 36. Denarius Moore | 14. Joe Flacco | |
28. Rashad Jennings | 37. Alshon Jeffery | ||
29. Evan Royster | 38. Lance Moore | ||
30. DeAngelo Williams | 39. DeSean Jackson | ||
31. Mikel Leshoure | |||
32. Roy Helu | |||
32. Toby Gerhart | |||
33. Mark Ingram | |||
TIER EIGHT | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
34. Ben Tate | 40. Robert Meachem | 9. Brandon Pettigrew | |
35. Pierre Thomas | 41. Darrius Heyward-Bey | 10. Tony Gonzalez | |
36. Bernard Scott | 42. Sidney Rice | 11. Jermaine Gresham | |
37. Frank Gore | 43. Jonathan Baldwin | 12. Jason Witten | |
38. Cedric Benson | 44. Kendall Wright | 13. Greg Olsen | |
39. Rashard Mendenhall | 45. Brandon LaFell | ||
40. Dexter McCluster | 46. Anquan Boldin | ||
41. Michael Turner | |||
42. Shonn Greene | |||
43. Jonathan Dwyer | |||
44. Robert Turbin | |||
45. Alfred Morris | |||
TIER NINE | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
46. Lamar Miller | 47. Stephen Hill | 14. Owen Daniels | 15. Ryan Fitzpatrick |
47. Beanie Wells | 48. Malcolm Floyd | 15. Jacob Tamme | 16. Ben Roethlisberger |
48. Isaiah Pead | 49. Nate Washington | 16. Jared Cook | 17. Russell Wilson |
49. Kendall Hunter | 50. Danny Amendola | 17. Coby Fleener | 18. Philip Rivers |
50. Willis McGahee | 51. Jerome Simpson | 18. Brent Celek | |
51. Michael Bush | 52. Davone Bess | ||
TIER TEN | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
52. Shane Vereen | 54. Leonard Hankerson | 19. Dustin Keller | 19. Jay Cutler |
53. Bilal Powell | 55. David Nelson | 20. Ed Dickson | 20. Matt Cassel |
54. Alex Green | 56. Randall Cobb | 21. Heath Miller | 21. Matt Schaub |
55. Jacquizz Rodgers | 57. Steve Smith (STL) | 22. Joel Dreesen | 22. Josh Freeman |
56. LaGarette Blount | 58. Mike Williams | 23. Scott Chandler | 23. Carson Palmer |
57. Isaac Redman | 59. Santonio Holmes | 24. Dennis Pitta | 24. Christian Ponder |
58. Daniel Thomas | 60. Brian Quick | 25. Alex Smith | |
59. Vick Ballard | 61. Nate Burleson | ||
60. LaMichael James | 62. Laurent Robinson | ||
61. Ronnie Hillman | 63. Emmanuel Sanders | ||
Undraftable | |||
RB | WR | TE | QB |
62. Felix Jones | 64. Greg Salas | 25. Lance Kendricks | 26. Tim Tebow |
63. Jahvid Best | 65. Mario Manningham | 26. Tony Moeaki | 27. Ryan Tannehill |
64. Michael Smith | 66. Michael Floyd | 28. Andy Dalton | |
65. Leon Washington | 67. Andre Roberts | 29. Sam Bradford | |
66. Chris Ivory | 68. Mike Thomas | 30. Blaine Gabbert | |
67. Dion Lewis | 69. Randy Moss | ||
68. Bernard Pierce | 70. Earl Bennett | ||
69. Jason Snelling | 71. Donald Jones | ||
70. Knowshon Moreno | 72. T.Y. Hilton | ||
73. Ryan Broyles | |||
74. Rueben Randle | |||
75. Santana Moss | |||
76. Golden Tate | |||
77. Steve Breaston | |||
78. Vincent Brown |
What do you think about long-term value (this season only) of Kevin smith vs. Mikel Leshoure. Word out of Det is they think Leshoure is the man. Great site.
Hey Ed, thanks.
I like Leshoure a lot. Considering one of the two games he missed was against the 49ers, I probably should have had Leshoure higher and Smith lower in my preseason rankings. That game was going to make Smith look bad and open an opportunity for Leshoure. (I own both in the PFF Dynasty league.)
My study of the 2011 RB class suggests Leshoure was the best prospect (slightly ahead of R. Williams and way ahead of Ingram). He’s not really a short yardage back either and could fit with what the Lions want to do in the passing game. The big question is whether he’s at 90% of his pre-injury form or only around 60%. Despite his low per carry average, he flashed a couple of times in preseason which should be taken as a good sign. (Of course, Williams also flashed and has looked awful in the regular season.)
The Lions didn’t really play to Smith’s strengths in the first two games and now they seem to have soured on him. If one emerges with 60% of the carries, that back should have RB1 value the rest of the way (both Best and Smith were Top 10 backs last year on a per game basis). Leshoure looks like that guy and is a definite trade target in every format.
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