Doug Martin, Arrested Development, and the PFF Draft Guide

Arrested Development
Tobias Fünke: No, no, it’s pronounced a-nal-ra-pist.
Buster: It wasn’t really the pronunciation that bothered me.

 

This may be the best summer in recent memory. One of the greatest shows in television history has risen from the dead, RB-RB has triumphantly returned as the de facto strategy of drafters everywhere, and the PFF Draft Guide is better than ever. Featuring the projections of Mike Clay – a Nostradamus-like character in the fantasy prediction world – the writing of big time award winners like Alessandro Miglio and Scott Spratt, and the IDP brilliance of Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles, the one draft guide devoted to serious players just got deadly. Did I mention that PFF Dynasty league champion Bryan Fontaine will be offering his visions of the future?

Oh, and the Banana Stand contributed three feature articles.

1) A Contrarian Approach to the RB Position: This feature looks at players like Doug MartinRay Rice, and Jamaal Charles and expands upon concepts like Vision Yards and Agility Score. The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture for the sustainability of Adrian Peterson’s success.

2) Possession Receiver Breakouts and Sustainability: In 2012 I put together a study which questioned the viability of receivers like Wes WelkerDanny Amendola, and Percy Harvin. The updated study contains a lot of new information with actionable fantasy intelligence. It also unveils a big 2013 sleeper.

3) Get ‘Em Early or Very, Very Late: I profile the TE position and detail a plan for generating serious excess fantasy value. Suffice it to say that I’m not particularly high on players like Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten. PFF’s advanced efficiency splits help explain why you should go big with players like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski (if healthy), or wait for super sleepers like Rob Housler or Dwayne Allen.

If you’re still not convinced and want to do a little WR research while trying to decide, take a peak behind the scenes with my Advanced Targets Wrap-Up articles – the most detailed breakdown of 2012 receiver splits anywhere on the web. Perusing these pieces will give you an idea of the insane depth that PFF offers.

Tier One examines the superstars like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall. Tier Two breaks down the guys in the 11-20 range and debunks some misconceptions about Julio Jones and Victor Cruz. Tier Three homes in on potential 2013 busts like Mike Wallace and guys who might experience a secondary breakout like Cecil Shorts.

So buy the Draft Guide and sign up for Fantasy Gold.

 

Shawn Siegele has finished in the Top 10 of the NFFC’s Main Event Classic for two consecutive seasons and is one of only a handful of players to own three or more Main Event league titles. He also contributes to Rotoviz and works as the Lead Redraft Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

2 thoughts on “Doug Martin, Arrested Development, and the PFF Draft Guide”

  1. Hey man,

    I love your content. Great way of looking at things. However, it appears your stuff is more geared toward redraft than dynasty. I have a dynasty startup draft coming up in 3 weeks, and want to use some of your strategies to get an edge.
    Which strategies would you suggest leaning on in dynasty and which strategies would you suggest minimizing?
    Thanks.

    1. Hey Seth, thanks for the kind words. At the risk of self-promotion, I’m going to have quite a bit of dynasty stuff on RotoViz over the next week or two as we look at the results of our RV startup draft.

      As to your question, my redraft rosters often look a lot like Dynasty rosters. It isn’t that I won’t draft older players if the value is there, but I always break ties with age. Most people go with established track record, but I always opt for the possibility that a young player might have another level that isn’t priced into ADP.

      The difference in Dynasty startups is that more people are adopting this strategy, so the pool of elite young players does tend to dry up more quickly. I think the key is to maintain discipline, even if it seems like older players are starting to go at a discount.

      In terms of positional value, I always pretend that I’m starting a real team, even if it seems unlikely the league will last for 10 or 15 years. Therefore, I’d much rather build with elite pass catchers because their projected viability is longer. In the PFF startup last year I began by picking Gronkowski, Julio, Nicks, and Demaryius, while trading for RG3. Then I just employ the spread theory at RB (much like I do for redraft). In that case I got lucky with Alfred Morris, but the beauty of the spread approach is that you just have to hit on one guy to really make your roster work.

      I would then fill in with RBs in future rookie drafts. (You probably saw my article on the PFF rookie draft where I explained why I took Le’Veon Bell and Zac Stacy.)

      I think the three main rules would be to 1) try to get big WRs who catch touchdowns, 2) try to get RBs who catch passes, 3) try to get an elite TE. Meanwhile, don’t draft small/fast WRs even if they’re young and coming off of good seasons.

      Also, if your league rules allow for trades, then trading up can be hugely valuable. Getting one more young, elite WR than your leaguemates is huge. Value in the middle rounds is much more easily replaceable.

      Hope that helps,
      Shawn

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