In the week leading up to the 2013 NFL Draft, I published my contrarian WR rankings. Based on the Dominator Rating and Height-adjusted Speed Score concepts, those rankings were an attempt to evaluate the reality value of the prospects. With the draft concluded and dynasty rookie drafts in full swing, these are my fantasy rankings that incorporate NFL Draft results. While I believe draft position has a big impact on fantasy viability, opportunity alone isn’t enough at the wide receiver position. As a result, I still strongly emphasize reality skill and athleticism in guesstimating future fantasy value.

RotoViz exhaustively studied many of these prospects leading up to the draft. I’ve embedded a link to that information in many of the player names.

1. DeAndre Hopkins – DR .40, HaSS 98

As I detailed in my breakdown of the PFF Dynasty rookie draft, Hopkins went to the perfect team to have short term value as the No. 2 behind Andre Johnson and to have long term value as he eventually swaps roles with the aging monster. Some are concerned about the Texans’ recent penchant for the running game, but I’m a believer in Matt Schaub and don’t think teams can remain run-based for any length of time in the contemporary NFL.

2. Tavon Austin – DR .30, HaSS 89

I’ve been very down on Austin, but he goes to the perfect team to take advantage of his skills. I also recently finished an article for the upcoming PFF Draft Guide that is more optimistic about possession receivers than the one I penned a year ago. Part of succeeding at fantasy sports – or anything for that matter – is a willingness to incorporate new information and upgrade your projections accordingly. Call it waffling if you must, but I’m coming around on Tavon. One small caveat to keep in mind, Chris Givens, Daryl Richardson, and Isaiah Pead are all small, in-space players, so there may be significant competition for these types of touches.

3. Corey Fuller – DR .38, HaSS 107

It may seem strange to dramatically upgrade a 6^th round receiver, but Fuller has a lot going for him. As RotoViz recently pointed out, he’s the only guy in this entire draft who’s over 200 pounds, ran a sub-4.45 forty, and didn’t suck last year. That on its own is pretty significant. He’s also a guy that I figured the Dominator Rating incorrectly for originally because I missed that he played in only 12 games. Finally, the Lions make an incredible landing spot. With Megatron seeing his usual coverage, Ryan Broyles operating underneath, and Reggie Bush catching dump-offs out of the backfield, Fuller should see plenty of daylight.

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Rip Riley: I’m setting the autopilot, but this better not be a ruse. 
Sterling Archer: A ruse? Brrring, brrring. Hello. Hi, it’s the 1930′s. Can we have our words and clothes and shitty airplane back?

These draft wrap-up columns are an attempt to help readers find all Banana Stand-related content on the recent NFL Draft. The following are my Top 10 teams in the grades I issued for RotoViz. The Jets managed to draft my No. 1 ranked player at No. 39 overall, which counts as a successful ruse by any definition. New York fans will simply have to hope I understand NFL player projection better than Sterling understood how autopilot worked.

Click on the team for a more in-depth look at their draft strategy and new rookies. Click on the player to brush up on their prospects in upcoming rookie drafts.

1) New York Jets A+

In Cracking the Geno Code, I’ve explained why the scouting criticisms are malarkey. His newly fired agents have been bashing him in back channels, which should help you land RotoViz’s unanimous No. 1 QB at a substantial discount in rookie drafts. He’ll put Mark Sanchez in the rear view mirror early in training camp.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers A+

Le’Veon Bell possesses an elite Agility Score and the Steelers agreed with me on his draft profile. They may have just gotten the next Doug Martin. (Ryan Rouillard’s awesome new projection system confirms that he should be the first pick in rookie drafts.) While the Jags drew all the wrong conclusions from their analytic work, Pittsburgh added key parts to their roster. Ben Roethlisberger will really appreciate the help as he tries to make their offense work sans Mike Wallace.

3) Baltimore Ravens A

Arthur Brown will be the top IDP in rookie drafts, and Aaron Mellette was an absurd value at 238. He could win the Week 1 starting job opposite Torrey Smith. I still think Joe Flacco may have negative roster value at his new salary. Look for more on that in the near future.

4) Houston Texans A

DeAndre Hopkins was the best match of value and need among skill position players. He should form a formidable 1-2 punch with Andre Johnson and help rejuvenate Matt Schaub. The Texans will need the passing game if Arian Foster’s malaise extends another year.

5) San Francisco 49ers A

I’m souring on the trio of Marcus Lattimore, Vance McDonald, or Quinton Patton, but the 49ers landed each at a value while also adding significant defensive talent. Colin Kaepernick should be well-stocked with weapons for years to come.

6) Green Bay Packers A

Eddie Lacy may have led the NCAA in success rate, but that’s a pure nonsense stat. He remains an enigma as part of an Alabama timeshare. Johnathan Franklin doesn’t fit into one of my priority draft profiles and should settle in as a low value satellite back. Now that I’ve had more time to reflect, I’d probably give them a lower grade, but they did select my pre-draft No. 1 receiver.

7) New Orleans Saints A-

The new NFL villains made value picks in selecting Kenny Vaccaro and Terron Armstead. This grade represents turnabout as I’ve been bashing the Saints’ pick of Mark Ingram for three years. This evaluation doesn’t take the ridiculous Chris Ivory trade into consideration. Pierre Thomas gained a bunch of fantasy value on draft weekend.

8) Detroit Lions A-

Ezekial Ansah may have the most star power of any player in this draft. He’ll be a monster next to Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Expect Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to love the Corey Fuller selection. He’s a stealth favorite to lead rookie WRs in 2013 scoring.

9) St. Louis Rams F/A

Tavon Austin is a super-charged version of Dexter McCluster. So . . . ehh? Stedman Bailey may be the best receiver in the draft. Zac Stacy is an Agility Score star. RotoViz enthusiasm has started a grassroots campaign to make Stacy the top rookie RB. In terms of fantasy furor, Isaiah Pead was so last week. As for Daryl Richardson, is he still on the roster?

10) Washington B+

Not an interesting draft from a fantasy perspective. Chris Thompson eviscerates Roy Helu’s sleeper value. Alfred Morris, aka Terrell Davis 2.0, just yawned and then broke five more tackles.

I previously tackled teams 11-22 in a pineapple-inspired I’ve Heard It Both Ways.

For teams who choked their selections, be prepared to Return to the Darkest Timeline.

Shawn Siegele has finished in the Top 10 of the NFFC’s Main Event Classic for two consecutive seasons and is one of only a handful of players to own three or more Main Event league titles. He also contributes to Rotoviz and works as the Lead Redraft Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

“That is my partner, Sh’Dynasty. It’s spelled S, H, Comma-to-the-top, Dynasty.” – Shawn
“Comma-to-the-top?” – Jordan
“That’s a God’s Comma.” – Gus

These draft wrap-up columns are an attempt to help readers find all Banana Stand-related content on the recent NFL Draft. The following are the teams ranking between 11 and 22 in the grades I issued for RotoViz. Consider it flip-flopping or waffling or what-have-you, but as far as the draft day execution for these franchises goes, a decent argument could be made in either direction.

As the other Shawn would say, I’ve heard it both ways. (Just don’t get Other Shawn confused with Other Barry.)

11) Cincinnati Bengals B

Tyler Eifert is the clear cut top TE prospect, but is he an upgrade on Jermaine Gresham? Gio Bernard profiles as the second coming of Kendall Hunter, which might make it difficult to hold off Rex Burkhead.

12) Seattle Seahawks B

Christine Michael was the top-rated running back in my pre-draft Banana Stand rankings. He looks a lot like a more powerful version of Matt Forte. Most see his path blocked by Marshawn Lynch, but Skittles may not be long for the roster. Don’t sleep on Michael in dynasty drafts.

13) San Diego Chargers B

Jon Moore didn’t like Keenan Allen even before the pro day debacle, but I’m more impressed by his high impact 2011 in a bad offense. Philip Rivers desperately needs a true intermediate threat. Allen should beat out Malcom Floyd in the battle to start opposite Danario Alexander.

14) Cleveland Browns B

The Browns didn’t do much on offense, which gives a big vote of confidence to guys like Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, and Jordan Cameron.

15) Kansas City Chiefs B-

Nobody is going to be the next Rob Gronkowski, but Travis Kelce is a real sleeper. Knile Davis was better than Marcus Lattimore in 2010, just don’t tell that to those selecting the S. Carolina star in rookie drafts. If Jamaal Charles goes down, heaven forbid, the Chiefs finally have a guy who could step in.

16) Chicago Bears C

Marquess Wilson is a guy to keep an eye on if he doesn’t pull a Dwight Jones. Jay Cutler has to like the focus on upgrading the O-line.

Brief Interlude: The RotoViz apps are starting to take the internet by storm. Don’t be last to the party. Or the stream of consciousness version: Let me take this chance to opine app level twilight red twenty. Nonsense! You say. To a point, but with a purpose.

17) New York Giants C

According to the RotoViz composite QB rankings, the Giants’ play for future draft value would have worked better with Tyler Bray than Ryan Nassib. Eli Manning might have preferred a different skill position sleeper.

18) Tennessee Titans C-

Although a tantalizing athlete, Justin Hunter’s SEC comparables aren’t very strong. After sandbagging for two years, the Titans are finally ready to let Jake Locker air it out to Kendall Wright and company.

19) Arizona Cardinals C-

At least the Cardinals avoided Mike Glennon. How much confidence can you have in Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams if you waste picks on Taylor and Ellington?

20) Atlanta Falcons C-

The Falcons could have used an upgrade on Jacquizz Rodgers, and Kenjon Barner would have been perfect for the role. Tony Gonzalez should have one more good season in him, but Levine Toilolo is a disappointing attempt at filling the eventual hole.

21) Indianapolis Colts C-

Ryan Grigson’s dubious offseason continued, but Kerwynn Williams was an intriguing selection. Vick Ballard isn’t a feature back.

22) Denver Broncos C-

The last time Denver drafted a high profile back with suspect athleticism they got stuck with Knowshon Moreno. Ronnie Hillman is the contrarian play for fantasy value in the Broncos’ backfield if he can grasp how to protect Peyton Manning.

* For those teams about which no dissembling was possible, check out 2013 Draft – Return to the Darkest Timeline.

** Did you spot the pineapple? If not, here’s some bonus pineapple for the road.

Shawn Siegele has finished in the Top 10 of the NFFC’s Main Event Classic for two consecutive seasons and is one of only a handful of players to own three or more Main Event league titles. He also contributes to Rotoviz and works as the Lead Redraft Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

Constable: Those Blorgons nearly peppered our biscuits. We got out just in time.

The Inspector: More accurately, Constable, we got out just in space.

Over the last several months I’ve done a lot of work on the 2013 rookie class for RotoViz, the internet’s emerging football analytics power. Following the draft, I posted grades for each of the franchises as a means of aggregating the work done on the prospects by the entire RotoViz team.

A few of those pieces are experiencing existential crises of their own as they float helplessly in the vast stretches of ether. If you missed any of those columns, I hope this acts as a signpost to find your way. Click on the team names to get the full article on your franchise of choice, or on the other links to scout a future fantasy player.

If you’re looking for a strategy session on upcoming rookie drafts, take a quick gander at my contrarian review of the 2013 first round of the Pro Football Focus Dynasty IDP league.

Abed doesn’t see any reason to get all emotional about it, but he believes ten NFL squads have returned to the darkest timeline.

23) Miami Dolphins D+

Many still believe the Dolphins needs someone to push Lamar Miller other than the underwhelming Daniel Thomas. Mike Gillislee is all the rage in rookie drafts even though his comps don’t show up on NFL rosters.

24) Minnesota Vikings D+

Greg Jennings gives Minnesota a true intermediate receiver, and Jarius Wright may provide a deep threat. The Vikings agreed with Matthew Freedman on Cordarrelle Patterson, ignoring my worries over his market share miasma.

25) Dallas Cowboys D+

Dez Bryant is the superstar and Miles Austin the post-hype bounceback candidate. Terrance Williams probably doesn’t project as a fantasy viable player in his own right, but his presence should help the other receivers.

26) Tampa Bay Bucs D

This is a make-or-break season for Josh Freeman, but the Bucs didn’t make any progress drafting Mike Glennon. If Tampa wanted a Blaine Gabbert clone, they could have just waited for the 2014 offseason and picked up the real thing.

27) Carolina Panthers D-

The gap in perceived value between Gio Bernard and Kenjon Barner is surprising since the former Duck is probably the better player. Unless he can play WR, the Panthers still didn’t get a bargain. Cam Newton needs more opposite Steve Smith than Brandon LaFell.

28) Oakland Raiders F+

With a return to the power blocking scheme, Darren McFadden gets a big boost to his fantasy value. For all those concerned about his injury woes, Latavius Murray instantly becomes a fantasy sleeper. If you take Murray’s Pro Day numbers at face value, his Speed Score eclipses the incumbent. Even after a strong minicamp, Tyler Wilson doesn’t project as an immediate threat to Matt Flynn.

29) Philadelphia Eagles F

Zach Ertz may be a media creation. Matt Barkley doesn’t project as a future a star, but the Eagles see some Drew Brees.

30) New England Patriots F

Recent history suggests Bill Belichick can’t scout WRs. It may be the only thing he can’t do. Danny Amendola won’t face a lot of WR competition for targets from Tom Brady.

31) Jacksonville Jaguars F

The Jags drew some strange conclusions from their analytic work, but I applaud the effort. Meanwhile, Chad Henne projects as the Week 1 starter.

32) Buffalo Bills Z-

Time to stop blaming Buddy Nix and start worrying that new GM Doug Whaley was actually responsible for the egregious mistakes of the 2013 offseason. The Bills rank last despite selecting the underrated E.J. Manuel.

Shawn Siegele has finished in the Top 10 of the NFFC’s Main Event Classic for two consecutive seasons and is one of only a handful of players to own three or more Main Event league titles. He also contributes to Rotoviz and works as the Lead Redraft Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

Yesterday, I published the Banana Stand’s Contrarian Running Back Rankings, using the full body of statistical models available to give the most accurate projections and comps you’ll see anywhere. Today, we have the much-anticipated Wide Receiver rankings employing the Dominator Rating and Height-adjusted Speed Score.

For a quick refresher, the Dominator Rating is a combined market share metric. It represents the percentage of receiving yards and touchdowns a player had on his college team. A wealth of documentation suggests similar methods are more accurate than scouting reports or raw stats. The Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS) uses the same basic principles that created the Speed Score for running backs. The stat is set so that 100 represents an average mark for receivers invited to the Combine. Calvin Johnson’s 143 is the highest recorded mark. Anything over 120 is elite. (For a fuller explanation of the methodology, check out the 2012 article.)

The 2013 class lacks top end performers but is very deep. Savvy teams will land similar prospects in the fourth and fifth rounds as those available in the first. I’ve provided what I see as appropriate values and contrasted those with their likely draft spots this weekend. For most of the notable players, I’ve also given comps that endeavor to match a player with not only similar guys in terms of DR and HaSS but specific physical profiles.

These are reality rankings. RotoViz has the best 2013 rookie dynasty ranks on the web.

The Rankings

1. Charles Johnson – DR .50, HaSS 113

Jon Moore put me on to Johnson’s existence. Ranking Johnson No. 1 will be seen in most quarters as purely for shock effect, but in fact ranking him anywhere else would be to ignore the methodology. Johnson’s Height-adjusted Speed Score is at the same level of Cordarrelle Patterson, and he jumped better in both the vertical and broad categories. I always add .05 to Pro Day 40 times, but if you take Johnson’s 40 at face value, his HaSS jumps to 118 and puts him close to the superstar range. Moreover, his Dominator Rating impresses even with defenses relentlessly scheming to take him away. Johnson’s DR is right in line with previous small school stars like Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, and Pierre Garcon who have emerged as forces in the NFL. Even if you adjust Johnson’s DR pretty dramatically because of concerns about his competition at Grand Valley State, he still comes out as the top prospect – basically Brian Quick with a lot better athleticism. The red flags with Johnson are more about his age than his DII status. Johnson began college way back in 2007 and bounced all over the place. Age does have an important impact in draft value, and if this is your reason for demoting Johnson, that’s understandable. Johnson’s projected selection in the draft covers an incredible range. He could be picked as early as the late second round by a team like the Patriots or he could come close to falling all the way out of the draft.

Comps: Miles Austin, Pierre Garcon

Value: 15-32  Projected: Late Second to Seventh

2. Stedman Bailey – DR .49, HaSS 86

Bailey tore the lid off the Big 12 last season and was utterly dominant scoring all over the field. His numbers absolutely dwarf those of more heralded teammate Tavon Austin. Here’s the thing I don’t get. The scouts are always talking about the tape and how it doesn’t lie, and yet Austin is a trendy first round pick with Bailey projected in the third. It’s impossible to watch West Virginia and not see how much better Bailey is than Austin. The diminutive speedster almost never catches a ball more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, but Bailey is dynamic at all depths. Unfortunately, Bailey lacks both size and speed. He profiles most similarly to guys like Greg Jennings and Antonio Brown. Matthew Freedman has demonstrated that second round receivers with Bailey’s production numbers frequently go on to be superstars. Don’t be surprised if he has the biggest rookie season.

Comps: Antonio Brown, Deion Branch, Brandon Lloyd, Randall Cobb, Kendall Wright

Value: 30-60 Projected: 45-90

3. DeAndre Hopkins DR .40, HaSS 98

I continually go back and forth between Bailey and Hopkins for the No. 2 slot. Because of height and age, Hopkins is a better bet to emerge as a No. 1 wide receiver. The Clemson product destroyed SEC competition as a junior and absolutely dominated in the highest leverage situations. Unfortunately, like Bailey he lacks first round athleticism. At 6’1”, you just have to run faster than 4.57. On the optimistic side, he’s a slightly weaker version of Hakeem Nicks.

Comps: Dwayne Bowe, Justin Blackmon, Rashaun Woods, David Givens

Value: 30-45 Projected: 20-30

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In the same way that the Banana Stand has been using Dominator Rating and Height-adjusted Speed Score to help improve the evaluations for wide receivers, I’ve been using Agility Scores to help develop the evaluation matrix for running backs. A year ago I debuted the Agility Score concept for Pro Football Focus. I explained some of the more recent motivation for the work in a piece illustrating why Le’Veon Bell is massively underrated.

It’s important to note that Agility Score is only one aspect, and not necessarily the most important one, as I explain in developing what I see as the Three Draftable NFL Profiles for RotoViz.

One final note before the rankings themselves: When most pundits give you comparable players, they’re trying to spin the scouting report in the direction that fits with their observations, often by citing an unrealistic upside player or intentionally depressing bust. I have given both positive and negative comps in this piece, and the players listed are very, very close to the prospect in terms of production, size, speed, and agility. I’m sure I’m as biased as the next person, but those biases are met with a wealth of easily verifiable data in these rankings.

These are reality rankings. If you’re looking for a projection of these backs to your fantasy squad, RotoViz just published its set of composite dynasty rankings.

1. Christine Michael

* College numbers represent career statistics.

Character concerns make it a very close call at No. 1, but Michael’s athleticism separates from his classmates to such a degree that the risk is worth the reward (assuming background checks don’t turn up even more discouraging info). Michael’s vertical leap and Agility Score make him a threat to eventually be among the ten best backs in the NFL, perhaps similar to another supposed character risk. He’s comps are incredible.

Positive Comps: Doug Martin, Matt Forte            Negative Comps: Roy Helu, Alex Green

Projected Value: Second Round                                Expected Selection: Late Second to Third

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Last week for RotoViz, I examined the statistical profiles of the current NFL starting quarterbacks to get a baseline for evaluating college passers. That led me to believe Colin Kaepernick was a better prospect than Blaine Gabbert all along. It also generated a simple hypothesis for the 2013 NFL Draft: select Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel. Avoid everyone else.

Of course, that simple and relatively straightforward analysis doesn’t eliminate all of the scouting concerns about Geno Smith. After all, Akili Smith put up good numbers in college. So did Matt Leinart. In this article, I’ll look at the biggest red flags the scouts have elocuted and try to determine whether any appear valid.

1. Mel Kiper has a date Wednesday

When the Kansas City Star asked Mel Kiper why Smith shouldn’t be in play for the Chiefs at No. 1, he explained that Smith was the “product of West Virginia’s system that created space and didn’t require throws into tight windows,” while also citing some “dropped interceptions.”

Naysayers tend to overestimate the prevalence of system quarterbacks at the BCS level. In fact, it’s fairly self-evident that putting up Madden numbers in a major conference is very, very difficult regardless of system. If it were easy, everybody would do it.

If we make a quick digression from the stats to the tape, we see all the features of a college spread offense, but we also see stick throws at the goal line against Texas and perfectly lofted bombs against Oklahoma. Kiper’s evaluation would appear to be drawn out of thin air.

His suggestion that there were dropped interceptions is laughable. Smith attempted 518 passes and threw 6 interceptions. He finished with a 7-1 TD/INT ratio. Among current NFL starters who played at BCS colleges, the only one with a better TD/INT ratio his final year in college was Russell Wilson. Smith’s TD/INT ratio is roughly twice as good as that posted by his NFL peers. (more…)

Now that an Alex Smith trade to Kansas City appears a fait accompli, long-suffering Chiefs fans are wondering what to make of the former No. 1 draft pick turned bust turned redemption project turned Wally Pipp.

I have to admit, the news doesn’t particularly excite the emotions. Everyone who knows anything knows Smith is a game manager masquerading as a viable starting quarterback due to the brilliant machinations of one Jim Harbaugh.

Kansas City hasn’t attempted to draft a franchise savior since they used the No. 7 overall pick in 1983 to select Todd Blackledge with Dan Marino on the board. They haven’t tried it again for thirty years, instead opting for a long series of retreads that includes Steve DeBerg, Dave Krieg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, and Matt Cassel. An entire generation of fans has known nothing but castoffs.

It’s hard to handle the idea of the Chiefs with the No. 1 overall pick and trading for Smith instead of selecting their own Matthew Stafford or Andrew Luck or RG3. Of course, there are supposedly no franchise quarterbacks in this draft, which has me scanning the historical archives for the what the ‘scouts’ had to say about Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. Survey says: . . . Well, you never know what’s going to be on the board.

John Dorsey and Andy Reid are just joining the Chiefs, but they better understand the stakes. To go with Alex over Geno in the battle of the Smiths, they need to be absolutely certain the rookie won’t turn into a star and simultaneously have a lot more confidence in Smith than the rest of us.

Regardless, if Smith is the hand we’re dealt, let’s see what we’re likely to get.

The most accurate way to do quarterback comparisons is to use adjusted yards per attempt. We also want to get a large enough sample to even out the inherent randomness of quarterback stats. Most importantly, we want to focus on a set of years that accurately compares quarterbacks at the same level of experience and athletic development. Therefore, we’ll use three seasons worth of data and compare Smith to other quarterbacks in their age 26 to age 28 seasons.

Alex Smith Historical Comparisons Age 26 to 28

The comps turn out to be shockingly good. Troy Aikman is already in the Hall of Fame and Tom Brady and Drew Brees will  be in the not too distant future. The list also includes a former Reid signal-caller in Donovan McNabb.

The comparisons also serve to undermine the major argument against Smith – namely that he’s purely a system quarterback who’s recently benefited from crafty manipulation. Brady, Brees, and McNabb had access to some of the best coaching the NFL has to offer. Aikman is in the Hall of Fame at least in part because he was the caretaker for a franchise overflowing with talent.

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